Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
What I would like to do is to weight the catalogue values by the two factors the Gum Status and the Condition, that are assigned to each item. What follows is a list of the two factors with options used in the database and my preliminary weight values.
* The Gum Status 50 Weight
Never Hinged 45
Lightly Hinged 35
Hinge Mark or Remnant 25
Large Part Original Gum 20
Small Part Original Gum 15
No Gum 5
Used 40
*The Condition 50 Weight
Very Fine 45
Fine/Very Fine 35
Fine 30
Average 25
Poor 15
Space Filler 10
For example, I have weighted both factors equally, then I would scale the highest for each factor at 50% (Goal that the max for both would be 100%). If I assign a value of 45 to Never Hinged and 45 for Very Fine. The total of 90 would be used. In this case. the estimated value would be 90 % of the catalogue price.
I would like some thoughts on the rule-of-thumb for each factor and their options. I know that there will be exceptions, I am trying for broad strokes that could be applied to totals.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Thank you.
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Valuation?
What is the reasoning behind the "valuation". Is it for insurance purposes? Or is it for resale? Or is it to be a guide for when you leave this mortal coil and your collection is then disposed of by your executors?
The answers to the above questions may be entirely different as a single "valuation" does not fit all.
For example.
For insurance purposes it would be replacement value and proof thereof.
For resale it would be what the market would expect.
For disposal by executors it would depend on their knowledge or the instructions you leave them on how and where the collection would be disposed.
In all three areas "catalogue values" or percentage thereof will be different.
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It is an interesting approach but not sure how it reflects reality.
To me, the catalog value is the base (centering, hinging status) where you start and then you adjust for actual value (deduction from catalog) and then deduct or add for hinging. For modern and common lower value stamps, I do not believe amount of gum or centering is really a factor unless the printing is notorious for variations in centering.
There may be 2 classifications - classic (where centering/hinging drives value), all other where usually just hinging is likely the predominant factor off the catalog value.
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This is interesting but I think that most stamps will not fit in this mathematical model. Take for instance 1960s / 1970s mnh very fine Netherlands or Germany (Bundespost): you will never get 90% of CV for that. In most cases 10 cents would be great. Other countries / other periods might be a completely different story and in certain cases one might fetch more than the CV, just depending on the popularity of the country and/or period.
Another thing to consider is that though this might be a workable solution for single stamps, valuing a collection is not a matter of finding all the catalogue values and adding them up. One could do that, but I do not think it would be realistic to expect more than 10 to 20% of such a total when trying to sell a collection.
Other than that I agree with Ian's remarks on the purpose of such a valuation.
Jan-Simon
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jansimon touches on an interesting concept.
If you wanted your "weights" to represent the marketplace, you'd be well-advised to gather up a database of condition and prices realized and then use that to develop coefficients based on actual market data to prospectively evaluate other stamps.
This could be done in Excel, using a multiple linear regression model:
Price = condition + gum + error
As jansimon implies, "error" in this model will probably be large, rendering your coefficients rather imprecise or biased. As well, you can't ignore the possibilities of non-linearities or non-independence in the model. You'd need to look at a scatter plot of your data to get a feel for this, for starters.
Good Luck!
I sense, from your presentation of the challenge, that you're focusing on Mint stamps. There are many other considerations in how the market evaluates Used stamps, which is beyond the scope of this topic.
-Paul
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But what fun with that be ? It sounds like physics to me. A dealer will ultimately set the price and they are experts.
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" A dealer will ultimately set the price and they are experts."
Aye, but there are dealers and dealers.
My son bought me a set of stamps from Stanley Gibbons and paid their asking price which was full catalogue value.
The same set of stamps from another well known British stamp dealer was 60% of catalogue value.
The valuation of any stamp is the same as guessing the length of a random piece of string.
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
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While the dealer may set the price it is the buyers who determine the price that is going to be paid.
As we have all discovered at some point in time, catalogue prices are totally irrelevant for some items as they are just not on the market, even when of minimum value.
How many stamp auctions carry "dealers stock", maybe if the dealers had not wanted so high a price there would not be so much to be bundled together at a low price.
Many of us, me included, have boxes of duplicates that we will end up giving away, either to charities or other collectors. Apart from boxes to Holocaust stamp project, lots of mine get donated to our local stamp club who make up baggies for the cost of a donation.
I find it irritating that auctions use the catalogue value for stamps in a lot, but rarely take condition into account, and with a poor scan of only some of the items it is impossible to verify condition. So hence they get a lot of lowball bids. Even more galling is the phrase "some faults".
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05:11:26am
I agree wholeheartedly with the caveats expressed and explained by experienced fellow members. Plus one other thing.
Topic popularity !
You can spend all day evaluating the "value" using some catalog listing as a base.
Then you may discover that one particular stamp or stamp issue is more valued by the collecting public because of a (usually) temporary burst of popularity and interest.
Shoot a space vehicle off to circle the moon and return and suddenly large historical
space flight issues, long thought to have an illusory stable base value might rise like Lazarus and double in value. Then just when the catalogs catch up with the
marketplace the bottom will drop out.
a
rketp lace
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I just wanted to thank everyone for their input. I knew in the back of my mind that there would be multiple variables. I believe at this point I going to leave my database as is. As was pointed out depending on the purpose the approach would have to be different.
My initial purpose is starting researching options for Insurance of my collection; this will be my Fall project. I am in my mid-50's (old if interviewing, young at a stamp show) and hope to have a couple of good collecting decades left in me.
Again thank you for taking the time to respond to my question. May be posting others in the future to get different takes on additions I may want to make to my database.
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For insurance purposes there are specialized companies that deal with stamps. Here in the UK any of the monthly stamp magazines have adverts for these companies.
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I have developed a database to store my collection information over the last few years for my use. I try to add new features periodically. Currently the catalogue price is recorded for each set/item; however, for valuation purposes I know that will be high.
What I would like to do is to weight the catalogue values by the two factors the Gum Status and the Condition, that are assigned to each item. What follows is a list of the two factors with options used in the database and my preliminary weight values.
* The Gum Status 50 Weight
Never Hinged 45
Lightly Hinged 35
Hinge Mark or Remnant 25
Large Part Original Gum 20
Small Part Original Gum 15
No Gum 5
Used 40
*The Condition 50 Weight
Very Fine 45
Fine/Very Fine 35
Fine 30
Average 25
Poor 15
Space Filler 10
For example, I have weighted both factors equally, then I would scale the highest for each factor at 50% (Goal that the max for both would be 100%). If I assign a value of 45 to Never Hinged and 45 for Very Fine. The total of 90 would be used. In this case. the estimated value would be 90 % of the catalogue price.
I would like some thoughts on the rule-of-thumb for each factor and their options. I know that there will be exceptions, I am trying for broad strokes that could be applied to totals.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Thank you.
Login to Like
this post
08:38:16pm
Approvals
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
Valuation?
What is the reasoning behind the "valuation". Is it for insurance purposes? Or is it for resale? Or is it to be a guide for when you leave this mortal coil and your collection is then disposed of by your executors?
The answers to the above questions may be entirely different as a single "valuation" does not fit all.
For example.
For insurance purposes it would be replacement value and proof thereof.
For resale it would be what the market would expect.
For disposal by executors it would depend on their knowledge or the instructions you leave them on how and where the collection would be disposed.
In all three areas "catalogue values" or percentage thereof will be different.
3 Members
like this post.
Login to Like.
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
It is an interesting approach but not sure how it reflects reality.
To me, the catalog value is the base (centering, hinging status) where you start and then you adjust for actual value (deduction from catalog) and then deduct or add for hinging. For modern and common lower value stamps, I do not believe amount of gum or centering is really a factor unless the printing is notorious for variations in centering.
There may be 2 classifications - classic (where centering/hinging drives value), all other where usually just hinging is likely the predominant factor off the catalog value.
1 Member
likes this post.
Login to Like.
Approvals
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
This is interesting but I think that most stamps will not fit in this mathematical model. Take for instance 1960s / 1970s mnh very fine Netherlands or Germany (Bundespost): you will never get 90% of CV for that. In most cases 10 cents would be great. Other countries / other periods might be a completely different story and in certain cases one might fetch more than the CV, just depending on the popularity of the country and/or period.
Another thing to consider is that though this might be a workable solution for single stamps, valuing a collection is not a matter of finding all the catalogue values and adding them up. One could do that, but I do not think it would be realistic to expect more than 10 to 20% of such a total when trying to sell a collection.
Other than that I agree with Ian's remarks on the purpose of such a valuation.
Jan-Simon
2 Members
like this post.
Login to Like.
11:35:16am
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
jansimon touches on an interesting concept.
If you wanted your "weights" to represent the marketplace, you'd be well-advised to gather up a database of condition and prices realized and then use that to develop coefficients based on actual market data to prospectively evaluate other stamps.
This could be done in Excel, using a multiple linear regression model:
Price = condition + gum + error
As jansimon implies, "error" in this model will probably be large, rendering your coefficients rather imprecise or biased. As well, you can't ignore the possibilities of non-linearities or non-independence in the model. You'd need to look at a scatter plot of your data to get a feel for this, for starters.
Good Luck!
I sense, from your presentation of the challenge, that you're focusing on Mint stamps. There are many other considerations in how the market evaluates Used stamps, which is beyond the scope of this topic.
-Paul
1 Member
likes this post.
Login to Like.
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
But what fun with that be ? It sounds like physics to me. A dealer will ultimately set the price and they are experts.
Login to Like
this post
12:09:51pm
Approvals
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
" A dealer will ultimately set the price and they are experts."
Aye, but there are dealers and dealers.
My son bought me a set of stamps from Stanley Gibbons and paid their asking price which was full catalogue value.
The same set of stamps from another well known British stamp dealer was 60% of catalogue value.
The valuation of any stamp is the same as guessing the length of a random piece of string.
You pays your money and you makes your choice.
Login to Like
this post
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
While the dealer may set the price it is the buyers who determine the price that is going to be paid.
As we have all discovered at some point in time, catalogue prices are totally irrelevant for some items as they are just not on the market, even when of minimum value.
How many stamp auctions carry "dealers stock", maybe if the dealers had not wanted so high a price there would not be so much to be bundled together at a low price.
Many of us, me included, have boxes of duplicates that we will end up giving away, either to charities or other collectors. Apart from boxes to Holocaust stamp project, lots of mine get donated to our local stamp club who make up baggies for the cost of a donation.
I find it irritating that auctions use the catalogue value for stamps in a lot, but rarely take condition into account, and with a poor scan of only some of the items it is impossible to verify condition. So hence they get a lot of lowball bids. Even more galling is the phrase "some faults".
Login to Like
this post
Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
29 Aug 2021
05:11:26am
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
I agree wholeheartedly with the caveats expressed and explained by experienced fellow members. Plus one other thing.
Topic popularity !
You can spend all day evaluating the "value" using some catalog listing as a base.
Then you may discover that one particular stamp or stamp issue is more valued by the collecting public because of a (usually) temporary burst of popularity and interest.
Shoot a space vehicle off to circle the moon and return and suddenly large historical
space flight issues, long thought to have an illusory stable base value might rise like Lazarus and double in value. Then just when the catalogs catch up with the
marketplace the bottom will drop out.
a
rketp lace
Login to Like
this post
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
I just wanted to thank everyone for their input. I knew in the back of my mind that there would be multiple variables. I believe at this point I going to leave my database as is. As was pointed out depending on the purpose the approach would have to be different.
My initial purpose is starting researching options for Insurance of my collection; this will be my Fall project. I am in my mid-50's (old if interviewing, young at a stamp show) and hope to have a couple of good collecting decades left in me.
Again thank you for taking the time to respond to my question. May be posting others in the future to get different takes on additions I may want to make to my database.
Login to Like
this post
03:21:35pm
Approvals
re: Weighting Catalogue Values: Your input requested.
For insurance purposes there are specialized companies that deal with stamps. Here in the UK any of the monthly stamp magazines have adverts for these companies.
Login to Like
this post