cdj1122

Inspired by Michael's efforts at catalog analyzing, I thought I would look at the results of the prices realized recently at one of the internet auctions compared to the obviously optimistic prices realized.
In the past I had found that at times the "skilled, experienced estimator, must be smoking some of that wacky tobaccy as he, or she (???), sorted through the 200 lots to be auctioned every three weeks, or so.
For most countries there were between three and about ten lots to be averaged, except Canada for which there were around 130. So I took three ten lot segments from different parts of the listing. With 15.6% realized the estimator placed a guesstimate that exceeded what people were willing to pay by 660%. Not even close.
Except for Australia, some world wide bulk lots and the PRC the guessed result was even worse. Sort of boarding a plane for London and landing in Singapore. Yes, there are pretty girls there as well and they speak "Singlish," but the "Fish and Chips" do not taste quite the same.
I suppose the excuse that would be offered is that to serve their customers (sellers) best they have to overestimate what auction after auction has returned. At least, they do provide the prices realized in a timely manner so that anyone with a modicum of common sense can see what actually happens.



Australia----------$ 1,870--------$1,015--------57.5%
Canada ----------$37,643 ------$2176 ---------05.8%
Canada ----------$ 7,821 -------$1,378 -------17.6%
Provinces --------$ 6,177 -------$1,330 -------21.5%
Total Canada ----$51,641 ------$7,782 -------15.6%
-
WW bulk lots ----$ 807 ---------$382 ---------47.3%
China PRC -------$1,139 -------$650.00 ------57.0%
X-mas & Cocos --$2,178 ------$300.00 ------13.8%
Denmark ---------$1.019 -------$ 65.00 ---------6.4%
France ------------$2,953 ------$414.00 -------14.0%
Germany ---------$4,857 -------$790.00 ------16.3%
Great Britain -----$6,636 ------$714.00 ------10.8%
USA ---------------$1,555 -------$190.00 ------12.2%

Total all ---------$73,848 ------$9,612.00 ----13.0%

If it were not getting so late and my adding in my head (Short columns only) becoming wonky I'd do a previous auction from a month or two back to see if there is a discernible trend, but I need to get some sleep now.

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cdj1122

re: How much, you say ?

" ... So just to clarify, for example the auction estimator for Canada estimated $37,643, but only received a winning bid of $2,176? Is this correct? ..."

Exactamundo !
The biggest divergence was from two lots that contained some 50 early stamps from 1859 though 1876, some duplication, some minor faults, estimated, estimated at about $2,400 sold for $110 each.
Scans were included. Perhaps the " minor faults" scared the big money away.

I'll correct the minor difference in that percentage. Old eyes and 4:00AM EST took their toll. I knew someone would re-check the late night math for me.

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