Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
1. Catalog values – A stamp printed in 100,000 copies from country A valued at 0.25. A stamp printed in 2,000,000 copies from country B valued at 2.50. Three stamps in a set, where the lowest value is printed in 500,000 copies and the higher value in 1,000,000 copies. The low value stamp has a catalog value of 0.25 and the high value stamp has a catalog value of 0.75
2. I have been trying to add the State Duck Stamp RW1 to my collection. There are dozens of them on Ebay from about $30 to a few hundred $ / piece. Every week there is at least one started at 0.99 and it goes up to over $30. It makes you wonder if there is a new Duck Stamp collector in need of this stamp every week, or if there is a dealer who buys those stamps when they get down to a certain value. Either way, the stamp does not seem rare by any stretch of the imagination.
3. You come across a lot of used stamps, of which 99% are CTO and somewhere in there you find a real used stamp from French Polynesia or Tonga or another obscure destination. Always makes me wonder how that one got in there.
4. Kiloware lots – you find some lots from countries you want and the pricing reaches unreasonable levels. You sometimes find some of those same stamps in complete sets, good quality and at prices per stamp comparable to what you pay for stamps in the kiloware lot. Except in the kiloware lot you end up with 25% damaged ones and the work of soacking, drying and sorting. Go figure…..
5. Another one that I already mentioned, the seemingly high number of recent Channel Islands used stamps compared to the real small number of recent stamps from much bigger countries
6. Stamperija - One would think, countries would have learned a lesson by now out of printing huge quantities of colourful stamps of dubious quality and artwork, but the practice continues even today with the most notable difference being the crazy high stamp denominations. I am baffled by all that and wonder who buys those stamps. It is close to impossible to catch up with new issues even when denominations are lower and stamp runs more moderate. It does take time to add a stamp to a collection and we are dealing with hundreds of thousands of them now.
Giving it some thought I could add a few more examples to the list above, but you may have some observations of your own.
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All very interesting and true observations!
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I always thought the US White Plains S?S was one of the odd issues. You can find them almost every where (a dealer recently had an ad for hundreds) yet the price still seems higher than it should.
I really wonder as well who is buying all these stamps (mostly S/S) from the usual prolific countries. They end up listed in catalogs so these get larger every year. Do people buy new catalogs to get the catalog numbers for all these countries? No dealer could stock most of these.
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"Do you people buy new catalogs to get the catalog numbers for all these countries?"
I personally only use the free online catalog at stampworld.com . It has a number of omissions and obvious mistakes, but just as a general orientation tool, I find it useful.
As I said, catalog values are guesswork at best.
To get a proper catalog value, one needs to know the availability of a stamp (how many used and mint copies of that stamp are still in existence) and the general demand for each stamp. With so many different stamps, all of them going through different times and conditions - wars, extreme weather events, negligence, poor handling, high moisture (tropical climates), pets, kids, accidents; it is close to impossible to determine the final value in the equation of 100 variables.
But then there is the day to day market variation. You may find one stamp for $1 one day and then see the same stamp sell for $10 the next; and when you try to sell it, you may end up making $2.
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Excellent points to ponder!
I’m also especially curious about those countries cranking out all of those new stamps. I don’t know hardly anyone buying new issues - where do they go? The incinerator?
Another one that puzzles me - the preference for a CTO copy of a new issue over a mint copy. This seems to be popular in Europe where collecting used is big. This one has me stumped - once it is cancelled, it is no longer usable for postage. I can understand why a postally used copy would be more in demand, but CTOs? Does this make any sense at all? Maybe the used collectors feel that’s as close as they can get to used? But shouldn’t a CTO copy be worth less?
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"... To get a proper catalog value, one needs to know ..."
What one needs to know is that, historically, catalogs were 'updated' by copying printed dealer price lists.
You needed little-to-zero knowledge of anything to perform the largely clerical task of 'updating' the prices in a catalog.
I do not agree that, in an ideal world, a guy trying to sell a stamp for a quarter or a dollar or even a few dollars would spend any amount of time researching "... (how many used and mint copies of that stamp are still in existence) and the general demand for each stamp ..."
Life at anything but the high end of the market is quiet simple: the price I paid, plus X percent, and move on to the next stamp.
Since the price the dealer paid for any one stamp can vary tremendously - ignorant widow, cute widow, slow day at the auction house, junkie-in-a-hurry, no place to put more inventory, etc - the prices that greet you on the internet, at stamp shows, and in brick'n'mortar shops will be all over the place.
Moreover, even if they all started at the same price, some businesslike dealers are gonna mark down their inventory as time goes on, because a nickel today is better than a dime tamara.
At anywhere other than the high end of the market, we should not expect sellers to be looking over their shoulders at the prices charged by other sellers ... if they did, they'd have little time for anything else.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey (who thinks that Genuinely Postally Used stamps show-up in CTO lots because the CTO lot is on its way out the door)
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"the price I paid, plus X percent, and move on to the next stamp."
Yes, this reminds me of my current property assessment appeal where I tell the guys value is based on cost and depreciation plus considerations for my standard of life where I live. They tell me, no, we go with what the neighboring unit sold for last year regardless of condition, age, size, whatever and of course no consideration if standard of life goes down with the new project that drove the price increase.
Kind of the same thing with fishing lines. I am used to measuring the line by diameter and then by breaking strength for this diameter. In North America we measure line size in pounds of breaking strength where line thickness appears irrelevant.
Yes, there can be different ways to look at things. We can close our eyes to the important part and look from a simplistic perspective if this suits our purpose.
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ikeyPikey -
Very well-written piece. You nailed it.
Since I do not buy high end stamps, I find that the best way to see what stamps are worth is to get off the video screens and go to a stamp show, flea market, or an actual stamp shop.
At a recent stamp show, a dealer had red boxes of worldwide MNH complete sets on 102 cards for 15% of Scott catalogue value. While other dealers were looking around for someone to talk to, he had a mob of people handing him cash.
At a recent visit to my local bricks and mortar stamp shop, a nice USA collection, clean and neatly mounted, was being sold by the page at 50% of face value, must buy the whole page. Booklet panes, mini-sheets, souvenir sheets, it was all there. The dealer's usual 3 or 4 plastic tubs of stamps selling at 5 cents per stamp had multiplied to a dozen boxes. Envelopes and glassines bulging full of stamps. I spent 3 hours digging all the way through just one box. Dealers get so much stuff offered to them, they have to find ways to move the inventory.
Linus
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about the original point 1: it all depends on demand, it is not just the relative scarcity in absolute numbers. For instance, in absolute numbers, the Penny Black is not rare at all. A huge number were printed and compared to other stamps, a larger proportion was saved. But since it is the first stamp ever, every stamp collector would like to have at least one in his or her collection and this makes it a coveted stamp, with the associated high prices. On the other end of the spectrum, there are stamps from countries like San Marino or Paraguay that are much harder to find but are still low priced because there are not that many people actively looking for stamps from those countries.
re. CTOs: I recently got hold of a collection of DDR stamps, most of them used. I expected them to be CTO, as always, but these were all genuinely used commemoratives, with good cancels from places like Magdeburg, Halle and Merseburg. Never seen so many postally used DDR together and one would expect prices for such stamps would be much higher than stated in the catalogues, as they are virtually non-existent...
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CTO stamps, from what I have heard, are postal administrations left over stock sold to dealers at cut rate prices. Why burn when you can re-coup a few dollars for un-sellable stamps. bSo they cancel them all, or overprint the cancels on them & out they go to dealers.
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CTO's appear to be popular in Germany as a whole. I have seen some German CTO stamps that have been almost totally obliterated by the cancel.
I believe that some folks thought these stamps would be worth more if they were cancelled on the first day of issue.
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"... CTO stamps, from what I have heard, are postal administrations left over stock ..."
Nothing "left over" about them. These days - which means, actually for some decades - CTOs are produced at the same time as the mint stamps: the "cancellations" are just one more plate in a multi-plate press, or a separate run thru a separate press, with scheduled production runs & quantities.
There were enough folks who collect one mint & one used that the dealers & postal authorities created a system to supply them with fresh, clean, easy-peasy 'used' stamps.
Anyone who currently collects any of those postal-authority-issued souvenirs (maxi-cards, FDoI 'programs', etc) has the success of the CTO shtick to thank for them.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey (who, when he wants to be an ass, will argue that CTOs are just as illegitimate as MNHOGs ... neither has carried mail)
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“ s/ ikeyPikey (who, when he wants to be an ass, will argue that CTOs are just as illegitimate as MNHOGs ... neither has carried mail) “
Nothing wrong with preferring a stamp that actually worked for a living! Makes them a heck of a lot more interesting.
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Agreed Theresa!
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"On the other end of the spectrum, there are stamps from countries like San Marino or Paraguay that are much harder to find but are still low priced because there are not that many people actively looking for stamps from those countries."
And how would one know there are not many people actively looking for stamps from those countries? Nobody (dealers or anyone involved in stamp pricing) knows what I am after or what I am willing to pay for it. For many stamps I am willing to pay full catalog price or more, but I still do not find them.
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Demand will drive prices up. Low catalog prices for relatively scarce issues is one indication of how many people collect certain areas. Plus you can look at album and catalog sales for any country or topic and generate some data on least and most popular collecting areas. The number of bids in auctions and number of new issue subscription etc etc. point is there are ways to figure out what’s hot and what’s not.
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I think that folks should be able to collect whatever they want without being chided by others. The only issue I have with CTOs is any deception which often accompanies them. If a buyer purchases a CTO thinking that the cancel represents a postally used stamp (and catalog value) then they are being deceived.
However there are those who toss out the ‘buyer beware’ but my opinion is that this is not healthy for the hobby. (I dislike the ‘victim culture’ as much as anyone else and will always agree that buyers need to educate themselves as much as possible.)
What bothers me is the wholesale acceptance, from the issuing government entities through to the resellers, of referring to CTO stamps as ‘used’. In my opinion CTOs should be marked either with special cancels or on the back of the stamp to readily identify how they were produced. This differentiation would support the resellers and give catalog publishers the ability to sell more catalogs (new catalogs with a three valuations; Mint, Used, and CTO).
I support CTOs in the sense that I think that they offer a low cost, often topically related, entry point for the hobby. But feeling like you have been deceived is counter-productive and can lead to frustration and negative attitude towards philately.
Don
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What a palaver.
I have a very scientific method of pricing stamps, whether they are rare, currently "hot", mint never hinged, mint hinged, mint no gum, CTO, fine used, good used or using Scotts' catalogue, Gibbons, Yvert or Michel, 2012, 2013 or 2019.
Here is my secret formula:-
Look up the catalogue value, take 18.25% of the value, add on 15% Sales Tax, divide by 3, multiply by 2, add on 11%, cut a pack of cards and divide by the value of the card (Jokers have been removed) double the figure that you have, divide it by the number of children playing in the park opposite, add on the paypal cost, multiply it by the number of cars parked next door and add on 50 cents.
It works every time.
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06:41:00pm
Simply comparing production numbers between stamps
and catalog prices is deceptive.
There is a complex interplay between number created,
popularity of a stamp, its topic, and/or a country
itself, as well as availability, price, and convenience.
The history of the stamp and its sales records also may
affect an asked or accepted price. As mentioned, inventory
on hand may play a role. Strangest and hardest to quantify,
the current whims of the collecting public may upset
all otherwise prevailing logic.
In short, it is quite a horse race, filled with
complications, simplifications and Calculated
Wild-Assed Guesses. (CWAGs, a nautical term.)
I base many of my bids on how badly I want a stamp,
the time of month (When my checks come in) and
what funds I have left to play with. Sometimes I may
consider something that I have rarely, or never, seen
offered before. Sometimes after the bidding is over,
curiosity overcomes better judgement. I may poke around
in Scott's, Gibbons, or Michel, to see whether I got
a good deal, or burned my grubby little fingers.
(Again !!!)
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Ian, I like your formula and this is why I can't stop buying stamps from you.
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"point is there are ways to figure out what’s hot and what’s not."
Yes, I agree with that, but still catalog values do not reflect this very well. Let me think of an example......I have to go to my favorite stampworld.com catalog.
Peru - 1970 Fish - kind of common stamps cataloged at $0.25 (the lowest value possible). I may be inclined to pay 10 cents a stamp or even 20 cents if I get the whole set in good postally used condition. I do not think I found one in the past year or two so I will be still looking.
Norway - 2010 - Norwegian Art 13 Kr - catalogued at $2.50. Let me know how many of this stamp you are willing to accept at 10 cents and I will be very happy to oblige
Same with 2015 UK bees - 1st and 2nd class - catalogued at $1.00 and $1.25 respectively. I may be able to send you 100 or at least 50 of each at $0.10 each with a big smile.
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Oh a huge AMEN to what cougar said about catalog prices!
One of my favorite examples are the Irish 48c flower self adhesives that Scott values at $1.40 EACH - USED!
I donated 10,000 + of that issue to the holocaust project many moons ago after buying a huge kiloware mission mix. So according to Scott I made a donation worth thousands? Isn’t that cuckoo?
I wish all catalogs would adopt the Facit model that uses an M for minimum for very common stamps instead of some arbitrary value.
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Ah, Theresa, the price only went up because you took so many out of circulation and caused a world wide shortage
I'm still trying to find Hong Kong 1990's Litho QE2 used. minimum cat value, will quite happily pay a dollar apiece or more. Better luck finding hens teeth.
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"One of my favorite examples are the Irish 48c flower self adhesives that Scott values at $1.40 EACH - USED!"
Good example, Theresa! I did not even think of those. I too must have a pile of them and a few more piles of similar Irish self adhesive issues, some quite attractive.
But then in Canada where I reside, the 2019 Tourism definitive stamps, cataloged at $0.75 go straight in the garbage bin, as I do not expect to sell them for even 5 cents / piece.
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One of my favourites when comparing print runs are the following:
Scott 110 and 112. Same stamp but one perforated and one not.
Catalogue values (for mint) $29 and $7.25.
Numbers printed: 212,884,380 and 362,246.
Jan
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Regarding the Dutch stamps, it may be that the 10 c value was one of the "workhorses" of that time, and what was printed, was mostly used up. The imperforate variant was issued that way due to a strike, and I can imagine that people may have kept it as a curiosity, that collectors kind of rushed to buy it, and because it was also more awkward to use, more of it remained unused.
Another case of the interplay between availability, demand, popularity, and whatnot, all of which may vary with time and location.
-jmh
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In Eastern Europe it was quite common for some time to have a perforated and an imperforated issue of the same stamp. The imperforated ones were way more expensive from the start, but the print runs for them were much smaller; not like in the example above. This however points out to another aspect of catalog values - the new stamps are somehow assigned catalog values even before demand for them is known. This value usually remains at what it is for quite some time.
And yes, the imperforated issues as well as miniture sheets usually do not see much postal use as they are tailored to collectors needs.
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"Nothing wrong with preferring a stamp that actually worked for a living! Makes them a heck of a lot more interesting."
That's why I like to collect stamps on cover.
When I was looking to acquire some of the famous US stamps like US 1 & 2 and zeppelins, I found that buying one on cover wasn't that much of a difference in price, than getting just a stamp. So I watched over time for what I considered to be very pleasing covers representing all those issues.
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05:44:22am
" ..... This however points out to another aspect of catalog values - the new stamps are somehow assigned catalog values even before demand for them is known. ....."
That is easy to figure out. The big money dealers often have large standing orders for either MNH or used (cancelled) issues that need filling. As soon as sheets are delivered or picked up at a post office some are immediately cancelled. To sell a stamp from a sheetlet of 25, 55¢ stamps that the dealer just bought and had cancelled and costing him $13.75 he adds about 20% and charges $0.65 or $0.66 per stamp. but he cannot do that if Scott lists it at $0.15 (M) for a used stamp unless Scott lists it at almost $1.00 or thereabouts. Then the dealer can advertise about 30% off Scott, get his investment and a profit. Over time the listing can be adjusted to reflect reality plus 30%
And Scott knows that dealers buy whole sets of the catalog almost every year and buy the advertising especially the color full pages.
"He who pays the piper, calls the tune."
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For US stamps. Scott prices modern US at 2x face value even while still on sale at the post office. It supposedly represents a traditional dealer (a small and diminishing group) pricing model. For new issues, dealers can buy at face but over time issues will be available at less than face but cat price never falls below 2x minimum. Of course, there are some issues that are exceptions.
We can also add the fact that Scott prices are supposed to reflect a stamp in VF condition. Yet collectors and dealers are often not clear on if they take that into consideration when pricing stamps. For example, if someone sells stamps at 30% of Scott they really should mean they sell a VF stamp at 30% of catalog price.
Can you imagine a catalog that had prices as dealer buy prices or the hobby having a "Gray Sheet" like coins where buy/sell prices are listed?
Alas, tt is the nature of the beast.
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Can you imagine having a computer search engine that could crank out a list of ALL the values from every current catalog plus any known buy/sell prices and auction results for any given stamp? Dang that would be incredibly cool.
Some information isn’t archived, like auction results, so those values would have to be copied to a data base. The longer the program ran, the more data added to the data base. I wonder if any of the major catalogs use something like this to determine prices?
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One strange thing I see is how market prices are manipulated for some areas.
Israel 7-9 is a good example. This is not a scarce set. You can usually find a ton of them on the market. The price on these has held steady for years at three figures. Put a set out on Ebay; see what you get. Fifty at best. Penny Blacks are not that uncommon either. try to find a decent one for under a hundred bucks.
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"One strange thing I see is how market prices are manipulated for some areas."
I remember how in the early 80's Australian stamps had nice catalog values in Yvert. Don't know what those values look now, but most of those stamps you cannot sell for 5 cents a piece today.
Some countries just seem overvalued. Singapore too, maybe.....
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Pricing anything for someone else to buy is far from objective or rational. At least having a common (third-party) benchmark gives us something to gingerly hang on to as an imperfect reference point.
What if we convinced Scott/Michel/Etc to just show pictures with no prices. Better? Sounds like it, but then what would we have left to complain about?
I heard of a businessman who values his real estate properties at 150% when he goes to the bank for a loan or wants to brag about his wealth and success to magazines - then values them at 50% when he is assessed property taxes.
Some may like that model, but I’m ok with having someone (eg Scotts) independently (?) price stamps to which I will add my grain/ounce/pound of salt.
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Other hobbies seem to have price guide and catalogs which contain far more accurate valuations. For example, there are old car price guides for US car widely available for under $25. Old cars are far more complex and condition dependent then a small square of paper yet they manage to publish accurate market valuations. There are accurate pricing guides and catalogs for coins and currency.
I think the trouble here is that stamp catalog publishers have dug a hole and they keep digging. If next year they decided to change and have their catalogs reflect accurate market values, would their catalog sales increase or decrease? As Al mentioned above, why are they reflecting values for a shrinking number of full time stamp dealers when the majority of stamps being sold are by hobbyists or ‘part time dealers’? How can they justify not adjusting their valuations across the board when the online selling dropped the bottom out the values? Stubbornly clinging to yesteryear valuation methods is ultimately going to do stamp catalog publishers more harm than good.
Don
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"... I heard of a businessman who values his real estate properties at 150% when he goes to the bank for a loan or wants to brag about his wealth and success to magazines - then values them at 50% when he is assessed property taxes ..."
A more suitable example was James Bond, who kept his income in Old Francs, and his expenses in New Francs.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey
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"James Bond ... kept his income in Old Francs, and his expenses in New Francs"
I heard a savvy Monte Carlo based shaker-maker code-named "Ike The Pike" kept a section of MI-6 afloat through his arbitrage of Middle-Aged Francs between New and Old Francs.
No verification as of yet, but I'm looking for the commemorative stamp if anyone has it. Since there is no catalog value that I can find, I bid 3c.
Dave.
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There are things, occurrences and practices related to our hobby that I find strange and inexplicable, but they continue to happen. Here are some of those:
1. Catalog values – A stamp printed in 100,000 copies from country A valued at 0.25. A stamp printed in 2,000,000 copies from country B valued at 2.50. Three stamps in a set, where the lowest value is printed in 500,000 copies and the higher value in 1,000,000 copies. The low value stamp has a catalog value of 0.25 and the high value stamp has a catalog value of 0.75
2. I have been trying to add the State Duck Stamp RW1 to my collection. There are dozens of them on Ebay from about $30 to a few hundred $ / piece. Every week there is at least one started at 0.99 and it goes up to over $30. It makes you wonder if there is a new Duck Stamp collector in need of this stamp every week, or if there is a dealer who buys those stamps when they get down to a certain value. Either way, the stamp does not seem rare by any stretch of the imagination.
3. You come across a lot of used stamps, of which 99% are CTO and somewhere in there you find a real used stamp from French Polynesia or Tonga or another obscure destination. Always makes me wonder how that one got in there.
4. Kiloware lots – you find some lots from countries you want and the pricing reaches unreasonable levels. You sometimes find some of those same stamps in complete sets, good quality and at prices per stamp comparable to what you pay for stamps in the kiloware lot. Except in the kiloware lot you end up with 25% damaged ones and the work of soacking, drying and sorting. Go figure…..
5. Another one that I already mentioned, the seemingly high number of recent Channel Islands used stamps compared to the real small number of recent stamps from much bigger countries
6. Stamperija - One would think, countries would have learned a lesson by now out of printing huge quantities of colourful stamps of dubious quality and artwork, but the practice continues even today with the most notable difference being the crazy high stamp denominations. I am baffled by all that and wonder who buys those stamps. It is close to impossible to catch up with new issues even when denominations are lower and stamp runs more moderate. It does take time to add a stamp to a collection and we are dealing with hundreds of thousands of them now.
Giving it some thought I could add a few more examples to the list above, but you may have some observations of your own.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
All very interesting and true observations!
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
I always thought the US White Plains S?S was one of the odd issues. You can find them almost every where (a dealer recently had an ad for hundreds) yet the price still seems higher than it should.
I really wonder as well who is buying all these stamps (mostly S/S) from the usual prolific countries. They end up listed in catalogs so these get larger every year. Do people buy new catalogs to get the catalog numbers for all these countries? No dealer could stock most of these.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"Do you people buy new catalogs to get the catalog numbers for all these countries?"
I personally only use the free online catalog at stampworld.com . It has a number of omissions and obvious mistakes, but just as a general orientation tool, I find it useful.
As I said, catalog values are guesswork at best.
To get a proper catalog value, one needs to know the availability of a stamp (how many used and mint copies of that stamp are still in existence) and the general demand for each stamp. With so many different stamps, all of them going through different times and conditions - wars, extreme weather events, negligence, poor handling, high moisture (tropical climates), pets, kids, accidents; it is close to impossible to determine the final value in the equation of 100 variables.
But then there is the day to day market variation. You may find one stamp for $1 one day and then see the same stamp sell for $10 the next; and when you try to sell it, you may end up making $2.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Excellent points to ponder!
I’m also especially curious about those countries cranking out all of those new stamps. I don’t know hardly anyone buying new issues - where do they go? The incinerator?
Another one that puzzles me - the preference for a CTO copy of a new issue over a mint copy. This seems to be popular in Europe where collecting used is big. This one has me stumped - once it is cancelled, it is no longer usable for postage. I can understand why a postally used copy would be more in demand, but CTOs? Does this make any sense at all? Maybe the used collectors feel that’s as close as they can get to used? But shouldn’t a CTO copy be worth less?
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"... To get a proper catalog value, one needs to know ..."
What one needs to know is that, historically, catalogs were 'updated' by copying printed dealer price lists.
You needed little-to-zero knowledge of anything to perform the largely clerical task of 'updating' the prices in a catalog.
I do not agree that, in an ideal world, a guy trying to sell a stamp for a quarter or a dollar or even a few dollars would spend any amount of time researching "... (how many used and mint copies of that stamp are still in existence) and the general demand for each stamp ..."
Life at anything but the high end of the market is quiet simple: the price I paid, plus X percent, and move on to the next stamp.
Since the price the dealer paid for any one stamp can vary tremendously - ignorant widow, cute widow, slow day at the auction house, junkie-in-a-hurry, no place to put more inventory, etc - the prices that greet you on the internet, at stamp shows, and in brick'n'mortar shops will be all over the place.
Moreover, even if they all started at the same price, some businesslike dealers are gonna mark down their inventory as time goes on, because a nickel today is better than a dime tamara.
At anywhere other than the high end of the market, we should not expect sellers to be looking over their shoulders at the prices charged by other sellers ... if they did, they'd have little time for anything else.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey (who thinks that Genuinely Postally Used stamps show-up in CTO lots because the CTO lot is on its way out the door)
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"the price I paid, plus X percent, and move on to the next stamp."
Yes, this reminds me of my current property assessment appeal where I tell the guys value is based on cost and depreciation plus considerations for my standard of life where I live. They tell me, no, we go with what the neighboring unit sold for last year regardless of condition, age, size, whatever and of course no consideration if standard of life goes down with the new project that drove the price increase.
Kind of the same thing with fishing lines. I am used to measuring the line by diameter and then by breaking strength for this diameter. In North America we measure line size in pounds of breaking strength where line thickness appears irrelevant.
Yes, there can be different ways to look at things. We can close our eyes to the important part and look from a simplistic perspective if this suits our purpose.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
ikeyPikey -
Very well-written piece. You nailed it.
Since I do not buy high end stamps, I find that the best way to see what stamps are worth is to get off the video screens and go to a stamp show, flea market, or an actual stamp shop.
At a recent stamp show, a dealer had red boxes of worldwide MNH complete sets on 102 cards for 15% of Scott catalogue value. While other dealers were looking around for someone to talk to, he had a mob of people handing him cash.
At a recent visit to my local bricks and mortar stamp shop, a nice USA collection, clean and neatly mounted, was being sold by the page at 50% of face value, must buy the whole page. Booklet panes, mini-sheets, souvenir sheets, it was all there. The dealer's usual 3 or 4 plastic tubs of stamps selling at 5 cents per stamp had multiplied to a dozen boxes. Envelopes and glassines bulging full of stamps. I spent 3 hours digging all the way through just one box. Dealers get so much stuff offered to them, they have to find ways to move the inventory.
Linus
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
about the original point 1: it all depends on demand, it is not just the relative scarcity in absolute numbers. For instance, in absolute numbers, the Penny Black is not rare at all. A huge number were printed and compared to other stamps, a larger proportion was saved. But since it is the first stamp ever, every stamp collector would like to have at least one in his or her collection and this makes it a coveted stamp, with the associated high prices. On the other end of the spectrum, there are stamps from countries like San Marino or Paraguay that are much harder to find but are still low priced because there are not that many people actively looking for stamps from those countries.
re. CTOs: I recently got hold of a collection of DDR stamps, most of them used. I expected them to be CTO, as always, but these were all genuinely used commemoratives, with good cancels from places like Magdeburg, Halle and Merseburg. Never seen so many postally used DDR together and one would expect prices for such stamps would be much higher than stated in the catalogues, as they are virtually non-existent...
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
CTO stamps, from what I have heard, are postal administrations left over stock sold to dealers at cut rate prices. Why burn when you can re-coup a few dollars for un-sellable stamps. bSo they cancel them all, or overprint the cancels on them & out they go to dealers.
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10:19:55am
Auctions - Approvals
re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
CTO's appear to be popular in Germany as a whole. I have seen some German CTO stamps that have been almost totally obliterated by the cancel.
I believe that some folks thought these stamps would be worth more if they were cancelled on the first day of issue.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"... CTO stamps, from what I have heard, are postal administrations left over stock ..."
Nothing "left over" about them. These days - which means, actually for some decades - CTOs are produced at the same time as the mint stamps: the "cancellations" are just one more plate in a multi-plate press, or a separate run thru a separate press, with scheduled production runs & quantities.
There were enough folks who collect one mint & one used that the dealers & postal authorities created a system to supply them with fresh, clean, easy-peasy 'used' stamps.
Anyone who currently collects any of those postal-authority-issued souvenirs (maxi-cards, FDoI 'programs', etc) has the success of the CTO shtick to thank for them.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey (who, when he wants to be an ass, will argue that CTOs are just as illegitimate as MNHOGs ... neither has carried mail)
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“ s/ ikeyPikey (who, when he wants to be an ass, will argue that CTOs are just as illegitimate as MNHOGs ... neither has carried mail) “
Nothing wrong with preferring a stamp that actually worked for a living! Makes them a heck of a lot more interesting.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Agreed Theresa!
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"On the other end of the spectrum, there are stamps from countries like San Marino or Paraguay that are much harder to find but are still low priced because there are not that many people actively looking for stamps from those countries."
And how would one know there are not many people actively looking for stamps from those countries? Nobody (dealers or anyone involved in stamp pricing) knows what I am after or what I am willing to pay for it. For many stamps I am willing to pay full catalog price or more, but I still do not find them.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Demand will drive prices up. Low catalog prices for relatively scarce issues is one indication of how many people collect certain areas. Plus you can look at album and catalog sales for any country or topic and generate some data on least and most popular collecting areas. The number of bids in auctions and number of new issue subscription etc etc. point is there are ways to figure out what’s hot and what’s not.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
I think that folks should be able to collect whatever they want without being chided by others. The only issue I have with CTOs is any deception which often accompanies them. If a buyer purchases a CTO thinking that the cancel represents a postally used stamp (and catalog value) then they are being deceived.
However there are those who toss out the ‘buyer beware’ but my opinion is that this is not healthy for the hobby. (I dislike the ‘victim culture’ as much as anyone else and will always agree that buyers need to educate themselves as much as possible.)
What bothers me is the wholesale acceptance, from the issuing government entities through to the resellers, of referring to CTO stamps as ‘used’. In my opinion CTOs should be marked either with special cancels or on the back of the stamp to readily identify how they were produced. This differentiation would support the resellers and give catalog publishers the ability to sell more catalogs (new catalogs with a three valuations; Mint, Used, and CTO).
I support CTOs in the sense that I think that they offer a low cost, often topically related, entry point for the hobby. But feeling like you have been deceived is counter-productive and can lead to frustration and negative attitude towards philately.
Don
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06:30:44pm
Auctions - Approvals
re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
What a palaver.
I have a very scientific method of pricing stamps, whether they are rare, currently "hot", mint never hinged, mint hinged, mint no gum, CTO, fine used, good used or using Scotts' catalogue, Gibbons, Yvert or Michel, 2012, 2013 or 2019.
Here is my secret formula:-
Look up the catalogue value, take 18.25% of the value, add on 15% Sales Tax, divide by 3, multiply by 2, add on 11%, cut a pack of cards and divide by the value of the card (Jokers have been removed) double the figure that you have, divide it by the number of children playing in the park opposite, add on the paypal cost, multiply it by the number of cars parked next door and add on 50 cents.
It works every time.
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
15 Jan 2020
06:41:00pm
re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Simply comparing production numbers between stamps
and catalog prices is deceptive.
There is a complex interplay between number created,
popularity of a stamp, its topic, and/or a country
itself, as well as availability, price, and convenience.
The history of the stamp and its sales records also may
affect an asked or accepted price. As mentioned, inventory
on hand may play a role. Strangest and hardest to quantify,
the current whims of the collecting public may upset
all otherwise prevailing logic.
In short, it is quite a horse race, filled with
complications, simplifications and Calculated
Wild-Assed Guesses. (CWAGs, a nautical term.)
I base many of my bids on how badly I want a stamp,
the time of month (When my checks come in) and
what funds I have left to play with. Sometimes I may
consider something that I have rarely, or never, seen
offered before. Sometimes after the bidding is over,
curiosity overcomes better judgement. I may poke around
in Scott's, Gibbons, or Michel, to see whether I got
a good deal, or burned my grubby little fingers.
(Again !!!)
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Ian, I like your formula and this is why I can't stop buying stamps from you.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"point is there are ways to figure out what’s hot and what’s not."
Yes, I agree with that, but still catalog values do not reflect this very well. Let me think of an example......I have to go to my favorite stampworld.com catalog.
Peru - 1970 Fish - kind of common stamps cataloged at $0.25 (the lowest value possible). I may be inclined to pay 10 cents a stamp or even 20 cents if I get the whole set in good postally used condition. I do not think I found one in the past year or two so I will be still looking.
Norway - 2010 - Norwegian Art 13 Kr - catalogued at $2.50. Let me know how many of this stamp you are willing to accept at 10 cents and I will be very happy to oblige
Same with 2015 UK bees - 1st and 2nd class - catalogued at $1.00 and $1.25 respectively. I may be able to send you 100 or at least 50 of each at $0.10 each with a big smile.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Oh a huge AMEN to what cougar said about catalog prices!
One of my favorite examples are the Irish 48c flower self adhesives that Scott values at $1.40 EACH - USED!
I donated 10,000 + of that issue to the holocaust project many moons ago after buying a huge kiloware mission mix. So according to Scott I made a donation worth thousands? Isn’t that cuckoo?
I wish all catalogs would adopt the Facit model that uses an M for minimum for very common stamps instead of some arbitrary value.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Ah, Theresa, the price only went up because you took so many out of circulation and caused a world wide shortage
I'm still trying to find Hong Kong 1990's Litho QE2 used. minimum cat value, will quite happily pay a dollar apiece or more. Better luck finding hens teeth.
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"One of my favorite examples are the Irish 48c flower self adhesives that Scott values at $1.40 EACH - USED!"
Good example, Theresa! I did not even think of those. I too must have a pile of them and a few more piles of similar Irish self adhesive issues, some quite attractive.
But then in Canada where I reside, the 2019 Tourism definitive stamps, cataloged at $0.75 go straight in the garbage bin, as I do not expect to sell them for even 5 cents / piece.
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11:30:36pm
re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
One of my favourites when comparing print runs are the following:
Scott 110 and 112. Same stamp but one perforated and one not.
Catalogue values (for mint) $29 and $7.25.
Numbers printed: 212,884,380 and 362,246.
Jan
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Regarding the Dutch stamps, it may be that the 10 c value was one of the "workhorses" of that time, and what was printed, was mostly used up. The imperforate variant was issued that way due to a strike, and I can imagine that people may have kept it as a curiosity, that collectors kind of rushed to buy it, and because it was also more awkward to use, more of it remained unused.
Another case of the interplay between availability, demand, popularity, and whatnot, all of which may vary with time and location.
-jmh
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
In Eastern Europe it was quite common for some time to have a perforated and an imperforated issue of the same stamp. The imperforated ones were way more expensive from the start, but the print runs for them were much smaller; not like in the example above. This however points out to another aspect of catalog values - the new stamps are somehow assigned catalog values even before demand for them is known. This value usually remains at what it is for quite some time.
And yes, the imperforated issues as well as miniture sheets usually do not see much postal use as they are tailored to collectors needs.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"Nothing wrong with preferring a stamp that actually worked for a living! Makes them a heck of a lot more interesting."
That's why I like to collect stamps on cover.
When I was looking to acquire some of the famous US stamps like US 1 & 2 and zeppelins, I found that buying one on cover wasn't that much of a difference in price, than getting just a stamp. So I watched over time for what I considered to be very pleasing covers representing all those issues.
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
20 Jan 2020
05:44:22am
re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
" ..... This however points out to another aspect of catalog values - the new stamps are somehow assigned catalog values even before demand for them is known. ....."
That is easy to figure out. The big money dealers often have large standing orders for either MNH or used (cancelled) issues that need filling. As soon as sheets are delivered or picked up at a post office some are immediately cancelled. To sell a stamp from a sheetlet of 25, 55¢ stamps that the dealer just bought and had cancelled and costing him $13.75 he adds about 20% and charges $0.65 or $0.66 per stamp. but he cannot do that if Scott lists it at $0.15 (M) for a used stamp unless Scott lists it at almost $1.00 or thereabouts. Then the dealer can advertise about 30% off Scott, get his investment and a profit. Over time the listing can be adjusted to reflect reality plus 30%
And Scott knows that dealers buy whole sets of the catalog almost every year and buy the advertising especially the color full pages.
"He who pays the piper, calls the tune."
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
For US stamps. Scott prices modern US at 2x face value even while still on sale at the post office. It supposedly represents a traditional dealer (a small and diminishing group) pricing model. For new issues, dealers can buy at face but over time issues will be available at less than face but cat price never falls below 2x minimum. Of course, there are some issues that are exceptions.
We can also add the fact that Scott prices are supposed to reflect a stamp in VF condition. Yet collectors and dealers are often not clear on if they take that into consideration when pricing stamps. For example, if someone sells stamps at 30% of Scott they really should mean they sell a VF stamp at 30% of catalog price.
Can you imagine a catalog that had prices as dealer buy prices or the hobby having a "Gray Sheet" like coins where buy/sell prices are listed?
Alas, tt is the nature of the beast.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Can you imagine having a computer search engine that could crank out a list of ALL the values from every current catalog plus any known buy/sell prices and auction results for any given stamp? Dang that would be incredibly cool.
Some information isn’t archived, like auction results, so those values would have to be copied to a data base. The longer the program ran, the more data added to the data base. I wonder if any of the major catalogs use something like this to determine prices?
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
One strange thing I see is how market prices are manipulated for some areas.
Israel 7-9 is a good example. This is not a scarce set. You can usually find a ton of them on the market. The price on these has held steady for years at three figures. Put a set out on Ebay; see what you get. Fifty at best. Penny Blacks are not that uncommon either. try to find a decent one for under a hundred bucks.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"One strange thing I see is how market prices are manipulated for some areas."
I remember how in the early 80's Australian stamps had nice catalog values in Yvert. Don't know what those values look now, but most of those stamps you cannot sell for 5 cents a piece today.
Some countries just seem overvalued. Singapore too, maybe.....
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Pricing anything for someone else to buy is far from objective or rational. At least having a common (third-party) benchmark gives us something to gingerly hang on to as an imperfect reference point.
What if we convinced Scott/Michel/Etc to just show pictures with no prices. Better? Sounds like it, but then what would we have left to complain about?
I heard of a businessman who values his real estate properties at 150% when he goes to the bank for a loan or wants to brag about his wealth and success to magazines - then values them at 50% when he is assessed property taxes.
Some may like that model, but I’m ok with having someone (eg Scotts) independently (?) price stamps to which I will add my grain/ounce/pound of salt.
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
Other hobbies seem to have price guide and catalogs which contain far more accurate valuations. For example, there are old car price guides for US car widely available for under $25. Old cars are far more complex and condition dependent then a small square of paper yet they manage to publish accurate market valuations. There are accurate pricing guides and catalogs for coins and currency.
I think the trouble here is that stamp catalog publishers have dug a hole and they keep digging. If next year they decided to change and have their catalogs reflect accurate market values, would their catalog sales increase or decrease? As Al mentioned above, why are they reflecting values for a shrinking number of full time stamp dealers when the majority of stamps being sold are by hobbyists or ‘part time dealers’? How can they justify not adjusting their valuations across the board when the online selling dropped the bottom out the values? Stubbornly clinging to yesteryear valuation methods is ultimately going to do stamp catalog publishers more harm than good.
Don
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"... I heard of a businessman who values his real estate properties at 150% when he goes to the bank for a loan or wants to brag about his wealth and success to magazines - then values them at 50% when he is assessed property taxes ..."
A more suitable example was James Bond, who kept his income in Old Francs, and his expenses in New Francs.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey
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re: Those crazy things in Stamp Collecting
"James Bond ... kept his income in Old Francs, and his expenses in New Francs"
I heard a savvy Monte Carlo based shaker-maker code-named "Ike The Pike" kept a section of MI-6 afloat through his arbitrage of Middle-Aged Francs between New and Old Francs.
No verification as of yet, but I'm looking for the commemorative stamp if anyone has it. Since there is no catalog value that I can find, I bid 3c.
Dave.
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