Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Discussion - Member to Member Sales - Research Center
Before, I was also thinking that hi-tech, web, internet auctions, eBay, etc are making hard time for "old way" of Philately! But recently, I completely changed my view of this problem, with help from my "mentor" (actually, person "mentor" was also my English teacher in school, very old person, as I'm 54 yr old).
He asked me simple question:
With all this modernization in Philately, with young people around, what You think, why in P. R. of China, last 20 years, membership in Philatelic Organization/Clubs/ stamp market demand etc., rises from 2 million to 20 million young collector?
And what we think, why, as China economy slow down, stamp market are still going up?
I will try to explain it, because, reason is simple:
1: print just quantity You need to supply enough for post offices and subscribers & dealers,
2: first reason will result in shortage of new issues in central warehouse,
3: that will result in more demand,
4: more demand will result in more "NEWS",
5: more "NEWS" will result in more people interested in,
6: more people interested, more new members in clubs, etc.
Sample are same China Gov't that print 5 to 6 million in quantity of each issue, BUT THEY HAVE 20 million registered Philatelist (and rising)!
I see that also in: Serbia, Bosnia (Serbian part, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Russia).
So, fact is telling us where is problem!
If You print/reprint HUGE quantity (US, all islands countries, small Arab countries), market will be overflow with low value material, selling for few cent per stamp and no one will be interested in this "stickers" (that are mostly, in many countries around, not valid for postage inside own country).
And, as I'm mentor to few Young Philatelist, I still teach them, that even 1 cent, spent on Philately is investment! Bad, or good, that will time tell!
What are YOU thinking about?
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I think for this argument you need to know roughly how many stamp collectors there are at any given point in time - a statistic that might be difficult to come by. Currently in the UK people of my generation assume automatically that stamp-collecting is a hobby long past its time.
When I started collecting, however, it seemed to me that all boys of a certain social class had a stamp collection.* The UK seemed to abide by Milco's observation, and released, in the eight years following the Queen's coronation in 1953, precisely fourteen commemorative stamps, plus a set of four high values and a reissue of everyday definitives which didn't really count because only the watermark had changed.
In the next five years the number rose to 62, all commemorating something or other - the curve was rising because, maybe, of an increasing awareness of stamp collecting's possibilities for Post Office revenue.
This was a fallow period for me personally (no stamps collected from 1961 until the mid-eighties), but the issues kept coming, soon for no commemorative reason at all, coinciding with a period when I suspect stamp-collecting as a children's hobby began to lose some of its lustre.
And it has continued - more and more GB stamps issued every year for no postal purpose at all. But unless the Royal Mail misjudge their market totally, someone must keep buying them (and I admit I did until I gave up in disgust ten years ago). I don't believe it's the schoolchildren (based on my experiences as a teacher), so it must be older people, or maybe people from other parts of the world.
So, do the endless products of Royal Mail reflect a thriving hobby in the UK? Are there sufficient numbers of affluent greybeards to keep RM in business? Or do all these sets and souvenir sheets and prestige booklets actually go, for the most part, abroad? Who knows?
* My apologies to well over half of the human race for that observation - which, however, was genuinely held at a time when a privately-educated boarding-school boy had as much contact with the opposite sex as with the working class, which is to say precisely none.
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Hmmm... Guthrum, I am guessing you are my dad's age or thereabout. Until adulthood, I only ever encountered one stamp collector. Of course, we are working class folk. Then again, none of the officer's children were stamp collectors either.
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It's entirely possible that the arc of stamp-collecting popularity (or how it intersects with stamp issuing policy) is different in the US. I hope I didn't sound condescending in my comments on social class in the UK - that was not my intention.
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06:55:16am
" ... Are there sufficient numbers of affluent greybeards to keep RM in business? ..."
I am afraid that philately is doomed, doomed, I say, condemned to extinction by things like this.
Two experiences Monday.
First I went with my son to the University and sat in the Einstein's Bagels café while he went to class. I chose a table with a good view of the doors and windows so I could see the co-eds entering and leaving as well as those passing by en route to, or from, some important class or possibly an exciting assignation.
I see why they have self operating sliding doors, fully 70% of those entering or leaving held a cell phone in their hand, many with buds in their ears and few who seemed to be paying any attention to the doors, or other passing students. The percentage passing outside though the airy way between courtyards seemed to be a similar rate, but I wasn't able to actually get a count.
Besides the conclusion that we are passing the world on to a generation of oblivious future voters I also decided that it was a good thing that I went to an all male military academy where there weren't co-eds providing continual distraction.
I also did some pre-calculus calculations trying to determine whether short shorts and mini-skirts could be any shorter and still be structurally sound. More of that in another post.
Then after a quick snack we went to the Houston Stamp Club's first Monday meeting in a clubroom at the back of the Methodist Church downtown.
I was welcomed warmly with several members stepping over to my chair to introduce themselves and chat a bit. They had a nice meeting with the usual agenda items, mentioning who had passed away and signing a card for a member's wife who had been hospitalized. Then they all spoke in turn and shared some recent acquisition or interesting treasure. A nice group of about fifteen or twenty men and two women.
I'm guessing that none were born after 1950. So "Graybeards" would be a most appropriate description. I'm guessing that unless there are some new members, or the club has a mass of members who weren't there Monday night, that group will be gone in fifteen or twenty years.
So, to answer the question of how much longer can RM or USPS for that matter continue to print and sell stamps and gimmicks; "Not very."
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USPS will be able to continue selling their souvenirs because {heresy} there will always be another Elvis {/heresy}. The 'celeb' culture seems to be good for another few centuries, and where else can you get a genuine celeb souvenir for less than the cost of a mall-sized chocolate chip cookie?
The kids are another story. Thank G-d they are forever texting. Who wants to listen to them? I wasn't even interested in what teens had to say when I was a teen. Now? I think that ever-texting is the best thing that has happened to public transportation.
If you watch carefully, though, you see interesting things. For example, they will split a pair of ear buds so they can listen to each other's music. That's social.
And, as to the texting, it is probably a good thing that they are reaching outside of the people-they-happen-to-be-stuck-with to talk with people they want to talk to about things they want to talk about.
Yes, cdj1122, my all-boys high school was also a life saver. And a brain saver.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey
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This is all so very depressing but nothing in my experience contradicts any of it. I can visualize many a forgotten old dusty album on a bookshelf somewhere in twenty years but what happems to all those graded and slabbed "investment" quality issues then... items for which big bucks are paid today. Who's going to want to buy them if the hobby completely fades... surely they won't be considered "investments" then any more so than rare bird eggs are today. This is one reason why I collect just what I like and refuse to spend the big bucks on any single item... just as much fun and not nearly the risk and probable future total loss. It's like a gigantic game of musical chairs and I don't want to be caught holding expensive rarities when no one any longer has a desire for them... oh, they're always be eccentrics in dusty old studies who are interested in stamps as a sort of archeological adventure but it will surely be a buyers market then. For now I'll just keep on keeping on but I think we're doomed to eventual extinction. The future of numismatics may be a little brighter since they can trace their items of interest back at least 2,500 years.
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There may be millions of Chinese stamps collectors. How many are philatelists, speculators, patriots or casual hobbyists is another question. I take issue with whether the stamp market has not taken a downturn along with the Chinese stock market. Regardless, those millions will wise-up at some point when they realize the stamps were not good investments. What will be left are the true collectors. Then you can do a re-count and reassessment.
As for children and young adults absorbed in online media, that situation is entirely in the hands of the parents. I've said this before, in my family when my children are outdoors they are exercising mostly. They have little time to relax. A typical week is school 5 days a week, soccer practice 3 days, and soccer game or tournament on the weekend. Then there is music practice 7 days a week.
When they are free they can indulge their online media needs to their heart's content (within reason) and why not? Their schedule is worse than mine.
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“The children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise.â€
Every generation thinks the next will be the ruin of the world... I personally think the world will be different... but different doesn't mean bad... Stamp collecting, Like all forms of collecting will continue, up and down like it always has.
Just my two cents
oh and the quote above... is from Socrates who died 399 bce
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A picture is worth a 1000 words, it may be photoshop, but sadly, that's the way it is.
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I must to tell something, when is talking about Philatelist declining number/members/collectors:
Before, I was also thinking that hi-tech, web, internet auctions, eBay, etc are making hard time for "old way" of Philately! But recently, I completely changed my view of this problem, with help from my "mentor" (actually, person "mentor" was also my English teacher in school, very old person, as I'm 54 yr old).
He asked me simple question:
With all this modernization in Philately, with young people around, what You think, why in P. R. of China, last 20 years, membership in Philatelic Organization/Clubs/ stamp market demand etc., rises from 2 million to 20 million young collector?
And what we think, why, as China economy slow down, stamp market are still going up?
I will try to explain it, because, reason is simple:
1: print just quantity You need to supply enough for post offices and subscribers & dealers,
2: first reason will result in shortage of new issues in central warehouse,
3: that will result in more demand,
4: more demand will result in more "NEWS",
5: more "NEWS" will result in more people interested in,
6: more people interested, more new members in clubs, etc.
Sample are same China Gov't that print 5 to 6 million in quantity of each issue, BUT THEY HAVE 20 million registered Philatelist (and rising)!
I see that also in: Serbia, Bosnia (Serbian part, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Russia).
So, fact is telling us where is problem!
If You print/reprint HUGE quantity (US, all islands countries, small Arab countries), market will be overflow with low value material, selling for few cent per stamp and no one will be interested in this "stickers" (that are mostly, in many countries around, not valid for postage inside own country).
And, as I'm mentor to few Young Philatelist, I still teach them, that even 1 cent, spent on Philately is investment! Bad, or good, that will time tell!
What are YOU thinking about?
Login to Like
this post
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
I think for this argument you need to know roughly how many stamp collectors there are at any given point in time - a statistic that might be difficult to come by. Currently in the UK people of my generation assume automatically that stamp-collecting is a hobby long past its time.
When I started collecting, however, it seemed to me that all boys of a certain social class had a stamp collection.* The UK seemed to abide by Milco's observation, and released, in the eight years following the Queen's coronation in 1953, precisely fourteen commemorative stamps, plus a set of four high values and a reissue of everyday definitives which didn't really count because only the watermark had changed.
In the next five years the number rose to 62, all commemorating something or other - the curve was rising because, maybe, of an increasing awareness of stamp collecting's possibilities for Post Office revenue.
This was a fallow period for me personally (no stamps collected from 1961 until the mid-eighties), but the issues kept coming, soon for no commemorative reason at all, coinciding with a period when I suspect stamp-collecting as a children's hobby began to lose some of its lustre.
And it has continued - more and more GB stamps issued every year for no postal purpose at all. But unless the Royal Mail misjudge their market totally, someone must keep buying them (and I admit I did until I gave up in disgust ten years ago). I don't believe it's the schoolchildren (based on my experiences as a teacher), so it must be older people, or maybe people from other parts of the world.
So, do the endless products of Royal Mail reflect a thriving hobby in the UK? Are there sufficient numbers of affluent greybeards to keep RM in business? Or do all these sets and souvenir sheets and prestige booklets actually go, for the most part, abroad? Who knows?
* My apologies to well over half of the human race for that observation - which, however, was genuinely held at a time when a privately-educated boarding-school boy had as much contact with the opposite sex as with the working class, which is to say precisely none.
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re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
Hmmm... Guthrum, I am guessing you are my dad's age or thereabout. Until adulthood, I only ever encountered one stamp collector. Of course, we are working class folk. Then again, none of the officer's children were stamp collectors either.
Login to Like
this post
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
It's entirely possible that the arc of stamp-collecting popularity (or how it intersects with stamp issuing policy) is different in the US. I hope I didn't sound condescending in my comments on social class in the UK - that was not my intention.
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Silence in the face of adversity is the father of complicity and collusion, the first cousins of conspiracy..
07 Oct 2015
06:55:16am
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
" ... Are there sufficient numbers of affluent greybeards to keep RM in business? ..."
I am afraid that philately is doomed, doomed, I say, condemned to extinction by things like this.
Two experiences Monday.
First I went with my son to the University and sat in the Einstein's Bagels café while he went to class. I chose a table with a good view of the doors and windows so I could see the co-eds entering and leaving as well as those passing by en route to, or from, some important class or possibly an exciting assignation.
I see why they have self operating sliding doors, fully 70% of those entering or leaving held a cell phone in their hand, many with buds in their ears and few who seemed to be paying any attention to the doors, or other passing students. The percentage passing outside though the airy way between courtyards seemed to be a similar rate, but I wasn't able to actually get a count.
Besides the conclusion that we are passing the world on to a generation of oblivious future voters I also decided that it was a good thing that I went to an all male military academy where there weren't co-eds providing continual distraction.
I also did some pre-calculus calculations trying to determine whether short shorts and mini-skirts could be any shorter and still be structurally sound. More of that in another post.
Then after a quick snack we went to the Houston Stamp Club's first Monday meeting in a clubroom at the back of the Methodist Church downtown.
I was welcomed warmly with several members stepping over to my chair to introduce themselves and chat a bit. They had a nice meeting with the usual agenda items, mentioning who had passed away and signing a card for a member's wife who had been hospitalized. Then they all spoke in turn and shared some recent acquisition or interesting treasure. A nice group of about fifteen or twenty men and two women.
I'm guessing that none were born after 1950. So "Graybeards" would be a most appropriate description. I'm guessing that unless there are some new members, or the club has a mass of members who weren't there Monday night, that group will be gone in fifteen or twenty years.
So, to answer the question of how much longer can RM or USPS for that matter continue to print and sell stamps and gimmicks; "Not very."
Login to Like
this post
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
USPS will be able to continue selling their souvenirs because {heresy} there will always be another Elvis {/heresy}. The 'celeb' culture seems to be good for another few centuries, and where else can you get a genuine celeb souvenir for less than the cost of a mall-sized chocolate chip cookie?
The kids are another story. Thank G-d they are forever texting. Who wants to listen to them? I wasn't even interested in what teens had to say when I was a teen. Now? I think that ever-texting is the best thing that has happened to public transportation.
If you watch carefully, though, you see interesting things. For example, they will split a pair of ear buds so they can listen to each other's music. That's social.
And, as to the texting, it is probably a good thing that they are reaching outside of the people-they-happen-to-be-stuck-with to talk with people they want to talk to about things they want to talk about.
Yes, cdj1122, my all-boys high school was also a life saver. And a brain saver.
Cheers,
/s/ ikeyPikey
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30+ year member APS; member of ATA, ISWSC, ATA, PSS, MSS, PMCC, FDCS
07 Oct 2015
09:29:29am
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
This is all so very depressing but nothing in my experience contradicts any of it. I can visualize many a forgotten old dusty album on a bookshelf somewhere in twenty years but what happems to all those graded and slabbed "investment" quality issues then... items for which big bucks are paid today. Who's going to want to buy them if the hobby completely fades... surely they won't be considered "investments" then any more so than rare bird eggs are today. This is one reason why I collect just what I like and refuse to spend the big bucks on any single item... just as much fun and not nearly the risk and probable future total loss. It's like a gigantic game of musical chairs and I don't want to be caught holding expensive rarities when no one any longer has a desire for them... oh, they're always be eccentrics in dusty old studies who are interested in stamps as a sort of archeological adventure but it will surely be a buyers market then. For now I'll just keep on keeping on but I think we're doomed to eventual extinction. The future of numismatics may be a little brighter since they can trace their items of interest back at least 2,500 years.
Login to Like
this post
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
There may be millions of Chinese stamps collectors. How many are philatelists, speculators, patriots or casual hobbyists is another question. I take issue with whether the stamp market has not taken a downturn along with the Chinese stock market. Regardless, those millions will wise-up at some point when they realize the stamps were not good investments. What will be left are the true collectors. Then you can do a re-count and reassessment.
As for children and young adults absorbed in online media, that situation is entirely in the hands of the parents. I've said this before, in my family when my children are outdoors they are exercising mostly. They have little time to relax. A typical week is school 5 days a week, soccer practice 3 days, and soccer game or tournament on the weekend. Then there is music practice 7 days a week.
When they are free they can indulge their online media needs to their heart's content (within reason) and why not? Their schedule is worse than mine.
Login to Like
this post
re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
“The children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise.â€
Every generation thinks the next will be the ruin of the world... I personally think the world will be different... but different doesn't mean bad... Stamp collecting, Like all forms of collecting will continue, up and down like it always has.
Just my two cents
oh and the quote above... is from Socrates who died 399 bce
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like this post.
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re: Collectors - Philately, less interested in?
A picture is worth a 1000 words, it may be photoshop, but sadly, that's the way it is.
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